Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: A Comprehensive Model Life Table Approach for Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Penn collection
Interdisciplinary Centers, Units and Projects::Penn Population Studies Centers::Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)
Degree type
Discipline
Adult and Continuing Education
Data Science
Public Health
Statistics and Probability
Subject
modeling
mortality
children
infants
low income
Funder
Research reported in this manuscript was supported by the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under award number R01HD090082. The authors would like to thank the members of the Technical Advisory Group of the United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) for their feedback.
Grant number
Copyright date
2025-07-31
Distributor
Related resources
Contributor
Abstract

Understanding how the risk of death varies across the 0–5 age range is essential for monitoring child health. Existing model life tables, including the log-quadratic model—denoted here model A—have been based on data from high-income countries and do not reflect the age patterns of mortality found in most part of sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia—two world regions that now account for approximately 80% of global under-5 deaths. In this paper, we present a new model life table approach—model B—designed to summarize the age distribution of under-5 mortality in these settings. Like model A, model B uses a log quadratic specification but is estimated from Demographic and Health Surveys. It includes 22 fine disaggregated age groups, allowing for flexible application across data inputs. We demonstrate that the new model captures key features of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia including excess risks of dying before 28 days and after 12 months of age. Model B provides accurate estimates across a wide range of age patterns, and in combination with Model A, offers a comprehensive modeling framework to best represent child mortality globally.

Advisor
Date Range for Data Collection (Start Date)
Date Range for Data Collection (End Date)
Digital Object Identifier
Series name and number
Population Center Working Paper (PSC/PARC), 2025-120
Publication date
2025-07-31
Volume number
Issue number
Publisher
Publisher DOI
Journal Issue
Comments
Recommended citation
Verhulst, Andrea, Julio Romero-Prieto and Michel Guillot. 2025. “Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: A Comprehensive Model Libe Table Approach for Low- and Middle-Income Countries.” University of Pennsylvania. Population Center Working Paper (PSC/PARC), 2025-120.
Collection