Romero Prieto, Julio

Email Address
ORCID
Disciplines
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Position
Introduction
Research Interests

Filters

2020 - 20252
2
2
Reset filters

Settings

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Publication
    Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: Results From a Log-Quadratic Model Applied to High-Quality Vital Registration Data
    (2020-08-31) Guillot, Michel; Romero Prieto, Julio; Verhulst, Andrea; Gerland, Patrick
    Information about how the risk of death varies with age within the 0-5 age range represents critical evidence for guiding health policy. This paper proposes a new model for summarizing regularities about how under-5 mortality is distributed by detailed age. The model is based on a newly compiled database that contains under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with high-quality vital registration systems, covering a wide array of mortality levels and patterns. The model uses a log-quadratic approach, predicting a full mortality schedule between age 0 and 5 on the basis of only 1 or 2 parameters. With its larger number of age groups, the proposed model offers greater flexibility than existing models both in terms of entry parameters and model outcomes. We present applications of this model for evaluating and correcting under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with problematic mortality data.
  • Publication
    Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: A Comprehensive Model Life Table Approach for Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    (2025-07-31) Verhulst, Andrea; Romero Prieto, Julio; Guillot, Michel
    Understanding how the risk of death varies across the 0–5 age range is essential for monitoring child health. Existing model life tables, including the log-quadratic model—denoted here model A—have been based on data from high-income countries and do not reflect the age patterns of mortality found in most part of sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia—two world regions that now account for approximately 80% of global under-5 deaths. In this paper, we present a new model life table approach—model B—designed to summarize the age distribution of under-5 mortality in these settings. Like model A, model B uses a log quadratic specification but is estimated from Demographic and Health Surveys. It includes 22 fine disaggregated age groups, allowing for flexible application across data inputs. We demonstrate that the new model captures key features of under-5 mortality in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia including excess risks of dying before 28 days and after 12 months of age. Model B provides accurate estimates across a wide range of age patterns, and in combination with Model A, offers a comprehensive modeling framework to best represent child mortality globally.