Marketing Papers
Title
Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method
Document Type
Technical Report
Date of this Version
2016
Publication Source
European Journal of Marketing
Volume
50
Issue
1/2
Start Page
276
Last Page
293
DOI
10.1108/EJM-10-2015-0728
Abstract
Purpose: To test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine.
Approach: Scores were calculated from the ratings of 17 self-trained novices who rated 96 matched pairs of print advertisements for adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles. Predictions from traditional methods—10,809 unaided judgments from novices and 2,764 judgments from people with some expertise in advertising, and 288 copy-testing predictions from 5,285 judgments—provided benchmarks.
Findings: The higher adherence to principles' consensus score correctly predicted the more effective ad for 75% of the pairs. Copy testing was correct for 59% and expert judgment was correct for 55%. Guessing would provide 50% accurate predictions. Combining judgmental predictions led to substantial improvements in accuracy.
Research limitations: Ads for high-involvement utilitarian products were tested on the assumption that persuasion principles would be more effective for such products. The measure of effectiveness that was available—day-after-recall—is a proxy for persuasion or behavioral measures.
Practical implications: Pretesting ads by assessing adherence to evidence-based persuasion principles in a structured way helps in deciding which ads would be best to run. Such a procedure also identifies how to make an ad more effective.
Originality: This is the first study in marketing, and in advertising specifically, to test the predictive validity of evidence-based principles. In addition, the study provides the first test of the predictive validity of the index method for a marketing problem.
Copyright/Permission Statement
This article is © 2016 Emerald Publishing Limited and permission has been granted for this version to appear here http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/EJM-10-2015-0728. Emerald does not grant permission for this article to be further copied/distributed or hosted elsewhere without the express permission from Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
Keywords
intentions, advertising, expertise, combing forecasts, copy testing, judgmental forecasting
Recommended Citation
Armstrong, J. S., Du, R., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2016). Predictive Validity of Evidence-Based Persuasion Principles: An Application of the Index Method. European Journal of Marketing, 50 (1/2), 276-293. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/EJM-10-2015-0728
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Advertising and Promotion Management Commons, Business Intelligence Commons, Cognitive Psychology Commons, Marketing Commons
Date Posted: 15 June 2018
This document has been peer reviewed.