Armstrong, J. Scott

Position

Professor of Marketing

Introduction

Professor Armstrong is internationally known for his pioneering work on forecasting methods. He is author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most frequently cited book on forecasting methods, and Principles of Forecasting, voted the "Favorite Book – First 25 Years" by researchers and practitioners associated with the International Institute of Forecasters. He is a co-founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Symposium on Forecasting, and forecastingprinciples.com. He is a co-developer of new methods including rule-based forecasting, causal forces for extrapolation, simulated interaction, and structured analogies.

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 227

Competition vs. Profitability
(1998-11-01) Armstrong, J. Scott; Franke, Richard; Vaclavik, Paul
Corporate cultural emphasis on long-term competitiveness as opposed to shorter-term profitability is evaluated in terms of effectiveness in achieving higher profit margins, real profitability, and survival in the long term. Competitive orientation continues to have adverse impact even with a lag of four decades. If supported by further, multivariate analyses, this finding suggests amendments to what has become standard strategic management thinking, perhaps in favor of earlier and more conventional microeconomic focus on profits.
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author's Formula
(1982-06-01) Armstrong, J. Scott
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an "author’s formula," a set of rules that authors can use to increase the likelihood and speed of acceptance of their manuscripts. Authors should: (1) not pick an important problem, (2) not challenge existing beliefs, (3) not obtain surprising results, (4) not use simple methods, (5) not provide full disclosure, and (6) not write clearly. Peters & Ceci (P&C) are obviously ignorant of the author’s formula. In their extension of the Kosinski study (Ross 1979; 1980), they broke most of the rules.
Are student ratings of instruction useful?
(1998-11-01) Armstrong, J. Scott
Despite the lead article's title, “Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction” (Greenwald, November 1997) in the American Psychologist 's special section on teacher ratings, the articles did not provide direct evidence on “usefulness.” There is no evidence that the use of teacher ratings improves learning in the long run. The articles do not show that the effects would improve the allocation of effort between teaching and research, or that the quality of the educational experience would be better, or that students and faculty would be happier. Given the evidence to date, the case for teacher ratings is weak. I raise some questions about usefulness, with a particular emphasis on the ratings' effects on learning.
The Fertile Field of Meta-analysis: Cumulative Progress in Agricultural Forecasting
(1994-06-01) Armstrong, J. Scott
A substantial effort has been devoted to agricultural forecasting over the past half century. Allen's quantitative review provides a powerful way to examine that research. The quantitative review (or "meta-analysis" as it is commonly called since. Glass (1976) is a formal study of studies. Meta-analyses sometimes reveal conclusions that were not obvious to those who view research findings in an impressionistic manner. Such a systematic review of the evidence should be superior to a subjective appraisal. After all, we do not trust researchers to merely look at a mass of data and decide what conclusions to draw. For those that prefer empirical evidence on the value of meta-analysis, see Cooper and Rosenthal (1980). Allen's meta-analysis is based on sound procedures. He conducted a systematic and extensive search. Given the vast amount of research on this topic, an extensive effort was required to collect these studies and then to analyze them. The research was summarized in an impartial manner. By providing the original sources and by showing how the papers were coded, the paper provides a firm basis for further research to build upon. Although I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of the coding, it would have been useful to ask the authors of the original research to check the codings used to represent their research in the meta-analysis. At the same time, one could ask about additional studies, published or unpublished, that might have been overlooked. Such a procedure would have added to our confidence about the conclusions of this meta-analysis. I list what seem to be the most surprising findings from Allen's meta-analysis. Then I discuss an overlooked contribution to the forecasting field. Finally, I describe an opportunity that I anticipate for this field.
Brief vs. comprehensive descriptions in measuring intentions to purchase
(1971-02-01) Armstrong, J. Scott; Overton, Terry
Introduction: In forecasting demand for expensive consumer goods, direct questioning of potential consumers about their future purchasing plans has had considerable predictive success [1, 2, 4]. Any attempt to apply such "intention to purchase" methods to forecast demand for proposed products or services must determine some way to convey product information to the potential consumer [3]. Indeed, all the prospective consumer knows about the product or service is what he may infer from the information given to him by the researcher. This paper presents a study of the effect upon intention to purchase of this seemingly crucial element—the extent and type of description of the new service. How extensive must the description of the new service be in order to measure intention to purchase?
Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising With reply to commentators: Should We Put a Price on Free Speech?
(2012-03-30) Green, Kesten; Armstrong, J. Scott
We found no evidence that consumers benefit from government-mandated disclaimers in advertising. Experiments and common experience show that admonishments to change or avoid behaviors often have effects opposite to those intended.We found 18 experimental studies that provided evidence relevant to mandatory disclaimers. Mandated messages increased confusion in all, and were ineffective or harmful in the 15 studies that examined perceptions, attitudes, or decisions. We conducted an experiment on the effects of a government-mandated disclaimer for a Florida court case. Two advertisements for dentists offering implant dentistry were shown to 317 subjects. One advertiser had implant dentistry credentials. Subjects exposed to the disclaimer more often recommended the advertiser who lacked credentials. Women and less-educated subjects were particularly prone to this error. In addition, subjects drew false and damaging inferences about the credentialed dentist.
How to avoid exploratory research
(1970-08-01) Armstrong, J. Scott
Introduction: Studies in marketing research often start with data rather than with a theory. This exploratory or inductive approach is at odds with the more preferred scientific method where the theory precedes the data in any single research study. (See, for example, the discussion by Francis, 1957) Because exploratory research is common, however, one might argue that it is of some value. A number of researchers have claimed that the exploratory approach leads to new and useful theories. But there is also the danger that the research will produce false leads or useless theories. An attempt is made in this paper to illustrate the dangers inherent in the exploratory approach. The question of whether the potential benefits are large enough to outweigh the dangers is left to the reader.
Does an Academic Research Paper Contain Useful Knowledge? No. (p<.05)
(2004-01-01) Armstrong, J. Scott
Moneyball: Message for Managers
(2012-01-22) Armstrong, J. Scott
Michael Lewis’ book and film, Moneyball, provide valuable advice for people involved with the selection and retention of employees. However, judging from some reviews, there is confusion about the message in Moneyball. I describe the problem and the Moneyball solutions here. The solutions are valuable for personnel decisions in any large organization.
Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction
(2007-01-01) Armstrong, J. Scott