THE SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES IN KYRGYZSTAN WITH THE MCDM MODEL.
Renewable energy technologies
renewable energy sources
analytic hierarchy process
Kyrgyzstan possesses significant hydro, solar, wind, thermal, and bioenergy resources, one of Central Asia's renewable energy-rich countries. Despite this, Kyrgyzstan has not successfully deployed renewable energy technologies and heavily relies on fossil fuel (55%) imports (Baybagyshov & Degembaeva, 2019). Currently, the share of renewable energy sources in the country's energy balance is less than 1%, which comes from hydro resources that are assessed as enormous and exploited at less than 10 percent of their potential (Shadrina, 2020a). Moreover, the country is one of the most vulnerable to climate change in Central Asia due to low-income economic dependency and outdated, low-efficiency energy systems. Consequently, there is a significant need for a systematic diagnosis of renewable energy sources to identify the most sustainable, reliable, and socially affordable options that can be deployed on a massive scale that will serve the country in the long run. Therefore, this study comprehensively analyzes the sustainability of various renewable energy sources and technologies and evaluates it from multiple sustainability factors. The study also assesses their resiliency to climate change effects and proposes mitigation and adaptation strategies for deployment. Five primary resources, hydropower, solar, wind, biomass, and thermal energy options, are considered. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method, an analytical hierarchy process (AHP), is used to evaluate and assess these sources. The AHP method considers economic, technological, environmental, and socio-political pillars and determines the weights of decision criteria to prioritize sustainable energy (SE) alternatives. Sensitivity analysis was performed using different weights for criteria in the multi-criteria method. Hence, as a result, the model identifies hydro as the most sustainable option, followed by solar, with wind and biomass ranking third and fourth, respectively, and geothermal being the least favorable alternative. Additionally, for the first time, this paper introduces the AHP model in the context of Kyrgyzstan, and conducted evaluations can offer guidance to policymakers in formulating and developing long-term energy strategies.
Kimbrough, Steven O.