Document Type

Working Paper

Date of this Version



Abraham Wyner


In this research paper, the discussion is targeted towards understanding the statistical analyses associated with the determining of draft pick success in the National Basketball Association. The three methodologies in question are Player Efficiency Rating and standard statistical categories, Roland Beech’s Rating System, and Win Shares. Through the discussion of these three separate methods, the research aims to give a holistic assessment of which study is the most likely to predict a player’s success post-draft. Through the paper, the ideas presented before, during, and after research are discussed with an emphasis on educating the reader on the field of predictive analytics and the role it plays in sports business. In its conclusion, the paper summarizes not that one methodology is superior to the others, but that the most conclusive method is one where all three approaches are analyzed and combined.


draft, NBA, predictive analytics, sports statistics

Included in

Business Commons



Date Posted: 18 October 2018


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