Document Type

Working Paper

Date of this Version



How confidently can taxpayers forecast the tax bill that they will face? We asked survey respondents to provide both point estimates and subjective probability distributions of items from the tax return that they will submit the following April. In a pilot study, consisting of a sample of 188 participants from Amazon Mechanical Turk, we find evidence of substantial uncertainty over both the final tax and its determinants. We discuss the implications of this uncertainty for both tax policy and economic modeling.


income tax, Amazon Mechnical Turk (MTurk), tax policy, Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), tax rates



Date Posted: 28 March 2019