Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Penn collection
Operations, Information and Decisions Papers
Degree type
Discipline
Subject
Catastrophe modeling
cost-benefit analysis
disaster risk reduction
Emergency and Disaster Management
Other International and Area Studies
Physical and Environmental Geography
Funder
Grant number
License
Copyright date
Distributor
Related resources
Author
Michel-Kerjan, Erwann
Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan
Kunreuther, Howard
Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne
Mechler, Reinhard
Muir-Wood, Robert
Ranger, Nicola
Vaziri, Pantea
Young, Michael
Contributor
Abstract

Major natural disasters in recent years have had high human and economic costs, and triggered record high postdisaster relief from governments and international donors. Given the current economic situation worldwide, selecting the most effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures is critical. This is especially the case for low- and middle-income countries, which have suffered disproportionally more economic and human losses from disasters. This article discusses a methodology that makes use of advanced probabilistic catastrophe models to estimate benefits of DRR measures. We apply such newly developed models to generate estimates for hurricane risk on residential structures on the island of St. Lucia, and earthquake risk on residential structures in Istanbul, Turkey, as two illustrative case studies. The costs and economic benefits for selected risk reduction measures are estimated taking account of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We conclude by emphasizing the advantages and challenges of catastrophe model-based cost-benefit analyses for DRR in developing countries.

Advisor
Date Range for Data Collection (Start Date)
Date Range for Data Collection (End Date)
Digital Object Identifier
Series name and number
Publication date
2013-06-01
Journal title
Risk Analysis
Volume number
Issue number
Publisher
Publisher DOI
Journal Issue
Comments
Recommended citation
Collection