Marketing Papers
Document Type
Journal Article
Date of this Version
December 1992
Abstract
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.
Keywords
discontinuities, forecasting guidelines, selection criteria, time series features
Recommended Citation
Collopy, F., & Armstrong, J. S. (1992). Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/67
Date Posted: 14 June 2007
This document has been peer reviewed.
Comments
Postprint version. Published in International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 8, Issue 4, December 1992, pages 575-582.
Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90067-J