Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

December 1992


We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.


Postprint version. Published in International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 8, Issue 4, December 1992, pages 575-582.
Publisher URL:


discontinuities, forecasting guidelines, selection criteria, time series features



Date Posted: 14 June 2007

This document has been peer reviewed.