Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities
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Marketing Papers
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discontinuities
forecasting guidelines
selection criteria
time series features
forecasting guidelines
selection criteria
time series features
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Collopy, Fred
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We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.
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1992-12-01
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Postprint version. Published in International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 8, Issue 4, December 1992, pages 575-582. Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90067-J