On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Penn collection
Marketing Papers
Degree type
Discipline
Subject
accuracy forecast evaluation
loss functions
Funder
Grant number
License
Copyright date
Distributor
Related resources
Author
Fildes, Robert
Contributor
Abstract

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment(GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based their conclusion on the fact that rankings based on GFESM remain unaltered if the series are linearly transformed. In this paper, we argue that this evaluation ignores other important criteria. Also, their conclusions were illustrated by a simulation study whose relationship to real data was not obvious. Thirdly, prior empirical studies show that the mean square error is an inappropriate measure to serve as a basis for comparison. This undermines the claims made for the GFESM.

Advisor
Date Range for Data Collection (Start Date)
Date Range for Data Collection (End Date)
Digital Object Identifier
Series name and number
Publication date
1995
Journal title
Volume number
Issue number
Publisher
Publisher DOI
Journal Issue
Comments
Postprint version. Published in Journal of Forecasting, Volume 14, Issue 1, January 1995, pages 67-71. Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980140106
Recommended citation
Collection