Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

May 2007


Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential election since 1860, retrospectively through 1980 and prospectively from 1984-2004. Given this record, it seems sensible to examine this index method. We tested how well the Keys model predicted the winner of the popular vote, and also how closely it forecasted the actual percentage of the two-party vote going to the incumbent ticket. The index method performs well compared with regression models. It also offers the opportunity to incorporate many policy variables. Index methods can be applied to various choice problems faced by organizations.


Postprint version. Published in Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting Issue 3, February 2006, pages 10-13.



Date Posted: 13 June 2007

This document has been peer reviewed.