Marketing Papers

Document Type

Technical Report

Date of this Version

5-2013

Publication Source

Judgment and Decision Making

Volume

8

Issue

3

Start Page

188

Last Page

201

Abstract

Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, and the tendency to maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates and predictions of uncertain quantities, with varying levels of control over the amount of information they could collect before estimating. Only AOT predicted performance. This relationship was mediated by information acquisition: AOT predicted the tendency to collect information, and information acquisition predicted performance. To the extent that available information is predictive of future outcomes, actively open-minded thinkers are more likely than others to make accurate forecasts.

Copyright/Permission Statement

© 2013 Society for Judgment & Decision Making.

Readers are reminded that this work is protected by copyright. While they are free to use the ideas expressed in it, they may not copy, distribute or publish the work or part of it, in any form, printed, electronic or otherwise, except for reasonable quoting, clearly indicating the source. Readers are permitted to make copies, electronically or printed, for personal and classroom use.

Keywords

forecasting, prediction, overconfidence, calibration, individual differences, actively open-minded thinking

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Date Posted: 15 June 2018

This document has been peer reviewed.