Date of this Version
Judgment and Decision Making
Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, and the tendency to maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates and predictions of uncertain quantities, with varying levels of control over the amount of information they could collect before estimating. Only AOT predicted performance. This relationship was mediated by information acquisition: AOT predicted the tendency to collect information, and information acquisition predicted performance. To the extent that available information is predictive of future outcomes, actively open-minded thinkers are more likely than others to make accurate forecasts.
© 2013 Society for Judgment & Decision Making.
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forecasting, prediction, overconfidence, calibration, individual differences, actively open-minded thinking
Haran, U., Ritov, I., & Mellers, B. A. (2013). The Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking in Information Acquisition, Accuracy, and Calibration. Judgment and Decision Making, 8 (3), 188-201. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/413
Date Posted: 15 June 2018
This document has been peer reviewed.