The Role of Actively Open-Minded Thinking in Information Acquisition, Accuracy, and Calibration

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Marketing Papers
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forecasting
prediction
overconfidence
calibration
individual differences
actively open-minded thinking
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Cognition and Perception
Cognitive Psychology
Marketing
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Haran, Uriel
Ritov, Ilana
Mellers, Barbara A
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Errors in estimating and forecasting often result from the failure to collect and consider enough relevant information. We examine whether attributes associated with persistence in information acquisition can predict performance in an estimation task. We focus on actively open-minded thinking (AOT), need for cognition, grit, and the tendency to maximize or satisfice when making decisions. In three studies, participants made estimates and predictions of uncertain quantities, with varying levels of control over the amount of information they could collect before estimating. Only AOT predicted performance. This relationship was mediated by information acquisition: AOT predicted the tendency to collect information, and information acquisition predicted performance. To the extent that available information is predictive of future outcomes, actively open-minded thinkers are more likely than others to make accurate forecasts.

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2013-05-01
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