Specification Curve: Descriptive and Inferential Statistics on All Reasonable Specifications

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specification curve
p-hacking
Applied Statistics
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Marketing
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Simonsohn, Uri
Simmons, Joseph P
Nelson, Leif D
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Empirical results often hinge on data analytic decisions that are simultaneously defensible, arbitrary, and motivated. To mitigate this problem we introduce Specification-Curve Analysis, which consists of three steps: (i) identifying the set of theoretically justified, statistically valid, and non-redundant analytic specifications, (ii) displaying alternative results graphically, allowing the identification of decisions producing different results, and (iii) conducting statistical tests to determine whether as a whole results are inconsistent with the null hypothesis. We illustrate its use by applying it to three published findings. One proves robust, one weak, one not robust at all.

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2015-01-01
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This is an unpublished version.
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