Marketing Papers
Document Type
Journal Article
Date of this Version
2007
Abstract
People often use analogies when forecasting, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure whereby experts list analogies, rate their similarity to the target, and match outcomes with possible target outcomes. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the information. When predicting decisions made in eight conflict situations, unaided experts' forecasts were little better than chance, at 32% accurate. In contrast, 46% of structured-analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate. Collaboration did not help.
Recommended Citation
Green, K., & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Structured analogies for forecasting. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/166
Date Posted: 26 May 2011
This document has been peer reviewed.
Comments
Suggested Citation:
Green, K. and Armstrong, J.S. (2007). Structured Analogies for Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23 (2007). p. 365-376.
Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.05.005