Marketing Papers

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Journal Article

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People often use analogies when forecasting, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure whereby experts list analogies, rate their similarity to the target, and match outcomes with possible target outcomes. An administrator would then derive a forecast from the information. When predicting decisions made in eight conflict situations, unaided experts' forecasts were little better than chance, at 32% accurate. In contrast, 46% of structured-analogies forecasts were accurate. Among experts who were able to think of two or more analogies and who had direct experience with their closest analogy, 60% of forecasts were accurate. Collaboration did not help.


Suggested Citation:
Green, K. and Armstrong, J.S. (2007). Structured Analogies for Forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 23 (2007). p. 365-376.

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Date Posted: 26 May 2011

This document has been peer reviewed.