Marketing Papers
Document Type
Journal Article
Date of this Version
December 1994
Abstract
We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we expected it to help for problems involving extreme and uncertain values. We first reanalyzed results from two published studies. Decomposition improved accuracy for nine problems that involved extreme and uncertain values, but for six problems with target values that were not extreme and uncertain, decomposition was not more accurate. Next, we conducted experiments involving 10 problems with 280 subjects making 1,078 estimates. As hypothesized, decomposition improved accuracy when the problem involved the estimation of extreme and uncertain values. Otherwise, decomposition often produced less accurate prediction.
Keywords
decision analysis, estimation, extreme values, forecasting, multiplicative
Recommended Citation
MacGregor, D. G., & Armstrong, J. S. (1994). Judgmental Decomposition: When Does It Work?. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/marketing_papers/132
Date Posted: 18 June 2007
This document has been peer reviewed.
Comments
Postprint version. Published in International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 10, Issue 4, December 1994, pages 495-506.
Publisher URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(94)90018-3