The Downward Spiral
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Penn collection
Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)
Degree type
Discipline
Subject
addiction
college/non-college educated
deaths
fentanyl
Markov chain
medical interventions
opioids
OxyContin
pain
prices
structural model
Chemicals and Drugs
Demography, Population, and Ecology
Family, Life Course, and Society
Medicine and Health
Social and Behavioral Sciences
college/non-college educated
deaths
fentanyl
Markov chain
medical interventions
opioids
OxyContin
pain
prices
structural model
Chemicals and Drugs
Demography, Population, and Ecology
Family, Life Course, and Society
Medicine and Health
Social and Behavioral Sciences
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Abstract
There have been more than 500,000 opioid overdose deaths since 2000. To analyze the opioid epidemic, a model is constructed where individuals, with and without pain, choose whether to misuse opioids knowing the probabilities of addiction and dying. These odds are functions of opioid use. Markov chains are estimated from the US data for the college and non-college educated that summarize the transitions into and out of opioid addiction as well as to a deadly overdose. A structural model is constructed that matches the estimated Markov chains. The epidemic's drivers, and the impact of medical interventions, are examined.
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Publication date
2022-09-14