Does It All Add Up? New Experimental Evidence for ‘Undersum Bias’ as an Impediment to Precautionary Saving

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The Wharton School::Wharton Pension Research Council::Wharton Pension Research Council Working Papers
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Economics
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saving
accumulation
cognitive bias
experiments
financial shock
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2024
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Timmons, Shane
McGowan, Féidhlim
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Abstract

Undersaving generates multiple sources of risk for consumer detriment. Cognitive biases, such as present bias and exponential growth bias, have been proposed to explain under-saving. We present novel evidence for another explanation: ‘Undersum’ bias describes a systematic tendency for consumers to underestimate the accumulation of monetary amounts, even in the absence of compound interest. We discuss recent lab and field experiments demonstrating its implications for saving. Undersum bias may demotivate saving as consumers fail to appreciate the benefits of starting to save early in life, and lead consumers to underestimate future expenditure and inaccurately judge the cumulative risk of financial shock.

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WP2024-14
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2024-10-02
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All findings, interpretations, and conclusions of this paper represent the views of the authors and does not represent official views of the above-named institutions. © 2024 Pension Research Council of the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. All rights reserved.
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