Earnings Extrapolation And Predictable Stock Market Returns

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Degree type
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
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Finance
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Behavioral Finance
Stock Returns
Finance and Financial Management
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2022-09-17T20:22:00-07:00
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Guo, Hongye
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Abstract

The U.S. stock market’s return during the first month of a quarter correlates strongly with returns in future months, but the correlation is negative if the future month is the first month of a quarter, and positive if it is not. These effects offset, leaving the market return with its weak unconditional predictive ability known to the literature. The pattern accords with a model in which investors extrapolate announced earnings to predict future earnings, not recognizing that earnings in the first month of a quarter are inherently less predictable than in other months. Survey data support this model, as does out-of-sample return predictability across industries and international markets. These results challenge the Efficient Market Hypothesis and advance a novel mechanism of expectation formation.

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Robert Stambaugh
Date of degree
2022-01-01
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