From the Pandemic to the Polls: How the Social and Economic Consequences of Iván Duque’s Lockdowns Led to Colombia’s Leftward Political Shift

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Degree type
Bachelor of Arts in Political Science
Graduate group
Discipline
Political Science
Subject
Latin American Politics
COVID-19 Pandemic
Elections
Inequality
Poverty
Pink Tide
Political economy
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author or copyright holder retaining all copyrights in the submitted work
Copyright date
2025-07-08
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Author
Barnes, Kate
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Abstract

Colombia’s 2022 presidential election marked a seismic political shift with the victory of Gustavo Petro, the country’s first democratically-elected left-wing president. This thesis examines how the COVID-19 lockdown policies of his predecessor, Iván Duque, exacerbated economic inequality, sparked widespread protests, and ultimately reshaped the Colombian electorate. In Latin America’s most unequal country, the pandemic pushed millions into poverty, with Afro-Colombian and Indigenous communities disproportionately affected. Duque’s controversial proposed tax and healthcare reforms ignited mass protests in 2021, which disrupted the livelihoods of Colombians in nearly every part of the country. These demonstrations eroded his administration’s credibility and alienated both conservative and marginalized voters. Using municipal-level electoral data, this thesis overlays economic indicators such as poverty rates and Gini coefficients with demographic data, including race and ethnicity, to assess shifts in voting patterns between 2018 and 2022. Quantitative analysis is complemented by qualitative insights into protest activity, news coverage, and political rhetoric. Findings reveal that minority communities turned out in record numbers to support Petro’s progressive platform after being deeply impacted by economic hardship and successfully convinced to vote for a leftist after months of anti-Duque rhetoric on the news and social media. By situating Petro’s triumph within the broader context of pandemic governance, social unrest, and economic discontent, this thesis underscores the role of crisis-driven political shifts in overturning entrenched norms. This thesis further contributes to the study of leftist movements and economic voting theory in Latin America, offering new insights into the political ramifications of inequality and crisis.

Advisor
Falleti, Tulia
Date of degree
2025-05-19
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