Why Disclose ARR?
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Technology
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Over the last 25 years, two of the three major market sell-offs in the American stock market have followed large bull markets in the technology industry. Technology firms thrive on innovation, which has led to distinct operating models relative to firms in other industries. These operating models are not well covered by traditional valuation models, leading to the use of non-GAAP metrics in industry and a gap in academic literature. This paper aims to better understand ARR, a proxy for revenue commonly used in industry. To investigate when and why managers disclose ARR, this paper looks at ARR disclosure frequency based on the firm’s rank on various performance variables. Firms with low return on assets, accruals, and revenues were found to mention ARR more often in their annual reports, potentially indicating that managers strategically disclose when operational performance is poor. To investigate ARR’s use as a tool in valuation, this paper examines the relationships between current ARR, current revenue, and future revenue and finds that future revenue is best predicted by a combination of ARR and revenue.