The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election
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American Politics
Business
Marketing
Models and Methods
Social Influence and Political Communication
Business
Marketing
Models and Methods
Social Influence and Political Communication
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Abstract
The PollyVote applies a century-old principle of combining different evidence-based methods for forecasting the outcome of American presidential elections. In this article, we discuss the principles followed in constructing the PollyVote formula, summarize its components, review the accuracy of its previous forecasts, and make a prediction for this year's presidential election.
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2016-10-01
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PS: Political Science & Politics