Interest Rate Responses to Federal Funds Target Changes in the Early 21st Century

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The Wharton School::Wharton Undergraduate Research::Joseph Wharton Scholars
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Economics
Business
Statistics and Probability
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Interest rate volatility
Fed funds futures
Fed funds target
EGARCH
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2025
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Basvoju, Abhinav
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Stine, Robert
Abstract

This paper examines how Treasury yields and volatility respond to federal funds target rate changes from 2000–2024, using futures data to separate anticipated from unanticipated policy actions. Compared to earlier periods, yields still respond significantly to policy surprises but responses are smaller across maturities, especially beyond the short end of the curve. Volatility in response to policy surprises fades quickly during this recent period on a daily basis, but persists at the monthly level, reflecting longer-lived uncertainty. Notably, market behavior on FOMC announcement days (when target rate changes are officially decided by the Fed) is nearly indistinguishable from non-announcement days. This reduction in the response to changes in the target rate supports the broader conclusion that improved Fed communication - through forward guidance and continuous public statements - has helped markets anticipate policy moves. As a result, surprises in monetary policy produce more gradual and muted responses, indicating a shift in how information is absorbed and reflected in Treasury prices.

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2025
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