Predicting with Positivity: Investigating the Impact of Positive Psychology on Forecasting Accuracy and Human-AI Collaboration
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Forecasting
Decision Sciences
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This capstone explores the intersection of positive psychology and geopolitical forecasting, focusing on personality traits that support mastery among a select group known as "Superforecasters." By reviewing existing forecasting and positive psychology literature, this study reveals these fields' synergistic potential. The goal is to demonstrate that incorporating positive psychology principles can enhance predictive accuracy and decision-making, leading to more favorable outcomes across these domains. We present a comprehensive literature survey of studies on forecasting, positive psychology, and data from the Good Judgment Project, a research initiative led by Drs. Barbara Mellers and Philip Tetlock at the University of Pennsylvania. This review identifies key personality attributes that correlate with forecasting excellence, many of which align with the principles of positive psychology. Additionally, the study explores the potential optimization of forecasting by integrating human attributes and artificial intelligence (AI). We discuss how positive psychology fortifies dialectical complexity, a decisive human contribution to forecasting. This research underscores the practical significance of merging these spheres to achieve superior forecasting outcomes.