Using Government Data To Predict The Price And Returns Of Timber Real Estate Investment TrustsUsing Government Data To Predict The Price And Returns Of Timber Real Estate Investment Trusts
Timber REITs are an understudied asset class with many direct drivers of value not seen in other REITs. With only a few Timber REITs listed on the NYSE, the idiosyncrasies between each stock means that it is difficult to draw conclusions at a non-stock-specific levels. Unlike other types of REITs, it may be feasible to predict value-metrics for Timber REITs based on readily available historical government data. This data can predict the behavior of the REITs’ stock movements without accounting for market conditions but is not useful when using an excess return model based on a market-benchmark approach. However, the selection of an appropriate benchmark for Timber REITs may not be clear-cut.