Large Volume Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient (API) Production
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Global obesity rates more than doubled between 1980 and 2020, and adolescent obesity rates quadrupled. The Covid-19 pandemic increased obesity due to worldwide lockdowns, food insecurity, and sedentary indoor lifestyles. During the pandemic, global obesity went from 11% to 25.3% in men and 15% to 42.4% in women[1] . Currently, the market for obesity drugs is dominated by liquid injectable treatments, such as Ozempic. This project models the production of two novel Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (API) that have the potential to treat obesity. The molecules, A and B, are modeled by acetaminophen and ibuprofen, respectively. For each molecule, two plants will be designed. The smaller plant must use batch reactors of 1500 L size and the larger of 5500L size. The process begins for both molecules with their penultimate reactant. The selling price per kg of each API is fixed at $5000/kg and $3000/kg for Molecule A and B respectively, while the cost of the penultimate intermediate is $3500/kg and $2500/kg respectively. The global demand for Molecule A and Molecule B is 20,000 kg/year and 40,000 kg/year. The small-batch Acetaminophen process was found to be most profitable, with a 15-year NPV of $66.6 MM and an ROI of 73.4% compared to $55.1 MM and 53% for A at the large scale. B at the small scale will see a 15-year NPV of $(30.7M) and an ROI of (11%), compared to $(53.5MM) and (13%) for B at a large scale. Molecule A is overall more profitable than Molecule B because the margin between the cost of the penultimate intermediate and product selling price of A is nearly triple that of B. Additionally, the catalysts required for the synthesis of B are both expensive and energy intensive. Further optimization is recommended in the future to produce Molecule A in the most cost-effective way.