Athena's Prism - A Diplomatic Strategy Role Playing Simulation for Generating Ideas and Exploring Alternatives
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Departmental Papers (ESE)
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Rees, Richard L
Toth, Jozsef A
Cornwell, Jason
O'Brien, Kevin
Johns, Michael
Caplan, Marty
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Abstract
Intelligence analysts must clear at least three hurdles to get good product out the door: cognitive biases, social biases and self-imposed organizational impediments. Others (e.g., Gilovich, et al., Heuer, and Kahneman and Tversky), explain the cognitive processes that can help or trip us. A less well mapped set of dangers arises in the social dynamics of communicating tasking, working with other analysts, editing and customer interaction. Finally, the mere fact of a unit's published record creates analytic inertia - an argument at rest tends to stay at rest and one in motion (i.e., ambiguous or uncertain) tends to stay in motion. (A variation of this includes groupthink.)
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2005-05-01
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Departmental Papers (ESE)
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2023-05-17T01:20:44.000
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Postprint version. Presented at the 2005 International Conference on Intelligence Analysis, May 2005, 2 pages. Published at: https://analysis.mitre.org/proceedings/index.html