Smith, Tony E
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Publication Predicting Housing Abandonment with the Philadelphia Neighborhood Information System(2003-01-01) Hillier, Amy E; Culhane, Dennis P.; Smith, Tony E; Tomlin, C. DanaSeveral large US cities, including Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia, have developed information systems to distribute property-level housing data to community organizations and municipal agencies. These early warning systems are also intended to predict which properties are at greatest risk of abandonment, but they have rarely used statistical modeling to support such forecasts. This study used logistic regression to analyze data from the Philadelphia Neighborhood Information System in order to determine which properties were most likely to become imminently dangerous. Several different characteristics of the property, including whether it was vacant, had outstanding housing code violations, and tax arrearages as well as characteristics of nearby properties were identified as significant predictors. Challenges common to the development of early warning systems - including integrating administrative data, defining abandonment, and modeling temporal and spatial data - are discussed along with policy implications for cities like Philadelphia that have thousands of vacant and abandoned properties.Publication Alternative Financial Service Providers and the Spatial Void Hypothesis(2008-05-01) Smith, Tony; Smith, Marvin M; Wackes, JohnThis paper studies the spatial relationship between traditional banking services (Banks) and alternative financial service providers (AFSPs). The main objective is to test the so-called spatial void hypothesis that AFSPs tend to locate in markets where traditional banking services are under-provided. The key question of interest here is whether or not AFSPs serve markets with significantly lower income levels than those of Banks. A statistical methodology is developed for addressing this question that builds on previous studies. The present approach is based largely on K-function analyses of both individual and paired point patterns. These Monte Carlo testing procedures are applied to Banks and AFSPs in the four-county region around Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and are also compared with previous methods. The main finding of this research is that there is indeed strong empirical support for the spatial void hypothesis in this Philadelphia region.Publication A Discrete-Time Stochastic Model of Job Matching(2003-01-01) Smith, Tony E; Zenou, YvesIn this paper, an explicit micro scenario is developed which yields a well-defined aggregate job matching function. In particular, a stochastic model of job-matching behavior is constructed in which the system steady state is shown to be approximated by an exponential-type matching function, as the population becomes large. This steady-state approximation is first derived for fixed levels of both wages and search intensities, where it is shown (without using a free-entry condition) that there exists a unique equilibrium. It is then shown that if job searchers are allowed to choose their search intensities optimally, this model is again consistent with a unique steady state. Finally, the assumption of a fixed wage is relaxed, and an optimal 'offer wage' is derived for employers.