Rogalla, Ralph
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Publication Understanding and Allocating Investment Risks in a Hybrid Pension Plan(2005-01-01) Albrecht, Peter; Coche, Joachim; Maurer, Raimond; Rogalla, RalphThis paper analyzes pension plan costs and investment strategies in the context of alternative hybrid pension plans which are optimal either from the perspective of the plan sponsor or the beneficiaries.The focus is in particular on how the introduction of minimum and maximum limits for pension benefits as well as minimum guarantees and caps on the return of the members’ individual investment accounts affect investment decisions and plan costs. Within a comparative static analysis framework, it is shown that for low to medium risk portfolios, minimum benefit guarantees tend to be more expensive than minimum return guarantees while for the latter costs increase exponentially with investment risk. The study also finds that portfolio choices of the sponsor and the beneficiaries show substantial differences depending on the exact plan design and the beneficiaries’ risk aversion. Combining minimum return guarantees and caps on investment returns emerged as a possible means to reduce such differences, to share investment risks and returns more equally between sponsor and beneficiaries, and to keep pension plan costs under control.Publication Managing Contribution and Capital Market Risk in a Funded Public Defined Benefit Plan: Impact of CVaR Cost Constraints(2008-09-01) Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S; Rogalla, RalphUsing a Monte Carlo framework, we analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for German civil servants, allowing for alternative strategic contribution and investment patterns. In the process we integrate a Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) restriction on overall plan costs into the pension manager’s objective of controlling contribution rate volatility. After estimating the contribution rate that would fully fund future benefit promises for current and prospective employees, we identify the optimal contribution and investment strategy that minimizes contribution rate volatility while restricting worst-case plan costs. Finally, we analyze the time path of expected and worst-case contribution rates to assess the chances of reduced contribution rates for current and future generations. Our results show that moving toward a funded public pension system can be beneficial for both civil servants and taxpayers.Publication Reforming the German Civil Servant Pension Plan(2008-07-01) Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S; Rogalla, RalphWe analyze the risks and rewards of moving from an unfunded defined benefit pension system to a funded plan for civil servants in Germany, allowing for alternative portfolio mixes using a Monte Carlo framework and a Conditional Value at Risk metric. First, we estimate contributions as a percent of salary that would fully fund future benefit promises for active employees. Second, we identify an investment strategy for plan assets that will minimize worst-case pension costs; this turns out to be 22% in equities, 47% in bonds, and 30% in real estate. Third, we explore the time path of pension fund asset shortfalls and the chances of contribution holidays for current and future generations. We show that moving toward a funded pension system for German civil servants can be beneficial to both taxpayers and civil servants.