F. Farinosi, C. Giupponi, A. Reynaud, G. Ceccherini, C. Carmona-Moreno, A. De Roo, D. Gonzalez-Sanchez, G. Bidoglio, 2018, An innovative approach to the assessment of hydro-political risk: A spatially explicit, data driven indicator of hydro-political issues, Global Environmental Change, Volume 52, Pages 286-313, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.07.001

In the folder you can find 5 different files: the baseline map was drawn by using the "likel_hp_risk" file. To exactly reproduce the map in the paper, you just have to display it in a stretched form (for instance, in ArcMap -> standard deviations type, n=2.5). The other files are the source of the scenario maps: each of them is basically the difference between the future scenario and the baseline map. The first number in the name indicates the year of projection (2050 and 2100), the second the RCP (4.5 and 8.5). The scenarios account for both population and climate change, as explained in the paper. In order to draw the maps you find in the paper, you have to set the minimum and maximum values of the scale identical for the 4 files (just picking min and max values from the 4).

See also data in an interactive way at Perry World House Global Climate Security Atlas https://global.upenn.edu/perryworldhouse/global-climate-security-atlas