Percent difference in mean fisheries catch and profits in 2091–2100 relative to 2012–2021

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Interdisciplinary Centers, Units and Projects::Perry World House
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Environmental Sciences
Subject
fisheries, climate change
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Scholarly Commons, University of Pennsylvania Libraries
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Free CM, Mangin T, Molinos JG, Ojea E, Burden M, Costello C, et al. (2020) Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries. PLoS ONE 15(3): e0224347. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347
Perry World House Global Climate Security Atlas https://global.upenn.edu/perryworldhouse/global-climate-security-atlas
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Free, Christopher
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Abstract

Free CM, Mangin T, Molinos JG, Ojea E, Burden M, Costello C, et al. (2020) Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries. PLoS ONE 15(3): e0224347. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224347 See Fig. 5. Percent difference in mean catch and profits in 2091–2100 relative to 2012–2021 (“today”) for 156 countries under realistic adaptation implementing management at 5-year intervals for three climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5.

"Maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of the evaluated stocks is forecast to decrease by 2.0%, 5.0%, and 18.5% from 2012–2021 to 2091–2100 under RCPs 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Across emissions scenarios, MSY is generally projected to decrease for equatorial countries and increase for poleward countries. Particularly dramatic reductions in MSY are predicted for the equatorial West African countries. Even under the least severe emissions scenario, nineteen countries, fifteen of which are in West Africa, are projected to experience reductions in MSY of 50–100%. The number of countries projected to experience dramatic losses in MSY, and the intensity of these losses, expands under the more severe emissions scenarios. In the most severe scenario, 51 countries are expected to experience reductions in MSY of 50–100%. All eighteen West African countries south of Senegal and north of Angola (including these two countries) are forecast to experience reductions in MSY greater than 85%. The equatorial Indo-Pacific and South America are also projected to experience considerable losses in MSY under the three emissions scenarios, with especially pronounced losses under RCP 8.5. Twenty-two countries are projected to experience increases in MSY under all three emissions scenarios with seven of these countries showing a 15% average increase in MSY across scenarios. The five most consistent and pronounced climate change “winners” are: Finland, Antarctica, Norway (4 EEZs: Norway plus Bouvet Island, Jan Mayen, and Svalbard), Portugal (3 EEZs: Portugal plus Azores and Madeira), and Fiji."

See also data in an interactive way at Perry World House Global Climate Security Atlas https://global.upenn.edu/perryworldhouse/global-climate-security-atlas

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