An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

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PSC Working Paper Series
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Bayesian learning
circumcision
condoms
disease transmission
HIV/AIDS
homo economicus
Malawi
marriage
policy intervention
sex markets
search
STDs
Demography, Population, and Ecology
Social and Behavioral Sciences
Sociology
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Greenwood, Jeremy
Kircher, Philipp
Santos, Cezar
Tertilt, Michèle
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Eleven percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used one quarter of the time. A choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed to analyze the Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The analysis suggests that the efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and general equilibrium effects that are typically absent in epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments. For some interventions (some forms of promoting condoms or marriage), the quantitative exercise suggests that these effects may increase HIV prevalence, while for others (such as male circumcision or increased incomes) they strengthen the effectiveness of the intervention. The underlying channels giving rise to these effects are discussed in detail.

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2013-01-01
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Greenwood, Jeremy, Philipp Kircher, Cezar Santos and Michèle Tertilt. 2013. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic." PSC Working Paper Series, PSC 13-03.
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