Risk Premia and Volatilities in a Nonlinear Term Structure Model

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Finance Papers
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Nonlinear Term Structure Models
Expected Excess Returns
Stochastic Volatility
Unspanned Risk Premia (URP)
Unspanned Stochastic Volatility (USV)
Finance and Financial Management
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Feldhütter, Peter
Heyersahl-Larsen, Christian
Illeditsch, Philipp Karl
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We introduce a reduced-form term structure model with closed-form solutions for yields where the short rate and market prices of risk are nonlinear functions of Gaussian state variables. The nonlinear model with three factors matches the time-variation in expected excess returns and yield volatilities of US Treasury bonds from 1961 to 2014. Yields and their variances depend on only three factors, yet the model exhibits features consistent with Unspanned Risk Premia (URP) and Unspanned Stochastic Volatility (USV).

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2016-10-28
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Review of Finance
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