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Publication Assessing The Viability Of Investment: An In-Depth Analysis Of The Brazilian Renewable Energy Sector(2024-05-01) Figueroa, FatimaOver the past decade, the renewable energy landscape globally has undergone significant transformations. Driven by the need for energy security, national goals, and a push toward net-zero emissions by 2050, the sector has seen substantial shifts. Geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising tensions in the Middle East have intensified concerns about energy security in a world where energy demand continues to grow. This research seeks to identify the factors that have transformed the Brazilian renewable energy sector and to explore potential areas for future investment.Publication A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach to Dynamic Latent Factor Modeling(2024-05-01) Liu, KevinBayesian nonparametric (BNP) models often offer flexibility benefits over their parametric counterparts since their use of infinite-dimensional parameter spaces reduces the need to make unnecessarily strict modeling assumptions. Examples of BNP applications include the Indian buffet process (IBP) in latent factor modeling and the Gaussian process (GP) in nonlinear regression. This paper approaches the task of dynamic latent factor modeling – that is, characterization of latent factors that influence observed trends over time – by proposing the IBPGP model, a BNP model that incorporates nonparametric methods both in relating latent factors to observed trends and in modeling the latent factors as functions of time. The paper then describes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm to estimate model parameters, and it applies this algorithm to a small, simulated dataset. The inference results indicate the potential for recovery of true parameters but also reveal opportunities for improvement in the sampling paradigm.Publication Stress Tests, Financial Markets, and Bank Runs in the Modern Era: An Empirical and Theoretical Analysis(2024-05-01) Kapoor, NeilIn recent years, the banking system has (1) undergone major changes in the stress test regulatory framework and (2) weathered a bank run crisis not seen since 2008. This thesis examines these two aspects from empirical and theoretical perspectives, respectively. First, I empirically analyze whether 2018 regulatory changes to Dodd-Frank supervisory stress testing rules — the Federal Reserve’s main oversight tool — created significant changes in idiosyncratic risk and significant new market information around stress test results disclosure dates. I find the idiosyncratic risk of bank stock returns is significantly different for certain banks, and, critically, market reactions to stress test results disclosures may not reflect this change in idiosyncratic risk. This suggests current stress tests may not fully reflect banking system risks. Second, I modify and solve a model of demand deposit contracts in the context of social media and deposit insurance. I find the probability of a bank run increases and decreases in these two factors, respectively. Policymakers should carefully consider the implications of stress test reforms, social media, and deposit insurance as they chart a path forward to safeguard the banking system.Publication Greening Clothing Rental Business Models: Evaluating the Global Warming Potential of Clothing Rental Business Across Last- Mile Transportation Scenarios(2024-05-01) Elkhwad, HallaClothing rental businesses have applied burgeoning circular economy frameworks to the apparel industry. This paper conducts a life cycle assessment (LCA) of U.S. based clothing rental business models across last-mile transportation scenarios and measures their global warming potential (GWP). The paper starts by replicating the five ownership and end-of-life scenarios for textiles outlined in a 2021 E.U. based study for the U.S. The scenarios include BASE, REDUCE, REUSE, RECYCLE, and RENT (SHARE). This paper finds that the ranking of the scenarios in terms of GWP remains constant when replicated for the U.S. except for the REUSE scenario. The sensitivity analysis shows that the majority of the difference in GWP between the BASE and RENT scenario can be eliminated when assuming that the rented clothing garment accounts for 5% of the product weight share transported by the consumer picking up a rented clothing item rather than 100%. This study also finds that GWP is 4.9-36.4% lower for consumers renting clothing in urban areas than rural areas.Publication Australia's Iron (C)ore: Examining Economic Interdependence with China Through Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis(2024-05-01) Wilkes, WillowThis paper explores the dynamics of Australia's economic interdependence with China, with a particular focus on the mining industry and iron ore exports. Specifically, a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model, variance decomposition, and Granger causality testing are used to examine the impact of fluctuations in Chinese industrial production of steel on nine selected economic variables (four international and five domestic). In response to a positive demand shock, all variables tested display an immediate positive result, suggesting interconnectedness and a quick adjustment to the shock. Additionally, in line with the results of existing studies, the cash rate and exchange rate appear to act as shock absorbers. Further, a persistent effect on the Index of Global Real Economic Activity and Australian GDP growth highlights the long-term influences of Chinese demand (a result further validated by the strong Granger-causal relationship between iron ore exports and Australian GDP growth (p-value: 4.2e- 06)). These findings have substantial implications for both the mining industry and overall Australian economy. Given existing trade tensions and the importance of China as a trade partner, it is thus essential for Australian business and policy leaders to plan for similar real-life scenarios appropriately.Publication Analyzing Shifts in Entrusted Lending Post-2018 in China(2024-03-01) Lou, AndrewThis thesis examines recent developments in China’s entrusted loans industry following the regulatory tightening in 2018. Entrusted loans are lending arrangements between two nonbank firms where funds are funneled through an intermediary bank. This arrangement is necessary for legal purposes as direct borrowing and lending between nonfinancial firms is not allowed in China. These loans can also circumvent bank interest rate ceilings and restrictions on lending to certain industries.Publication The Effect of Early-Stage American Investment on China-Based Healthcare and Tech Firms(2024-05-01) Mogbo, AdannaVenture capital over the past two decades has been central to the rapid growth and success of today's top technology firms, with the United States of America and China being the biggest beneficiaries of this boom. Talent and resources within venture capital have flowed relatively freely between the two regions, especially given that the United States and China being the homes of the most and the second-most number of “unicorn” companies (privately-held startups worth $1B or more), respectively, and the United States has consistently been the largest source of foreign venture capital funding in China.Publication Single Trajectory Conformal Predicition(2024-05-01) Lee, BrianWe study the performance of risk-controlling prediction sets (RCPS) and quantile risk control (QRC), two empirical risk minimization-based formulations of conformal prediction, with a single trajectory of temporally correlated data from an unknown stochastic dynamical system. First, we use the blocking technique to show that RCPS attains performance guarantees similar to those enjoyed in the iid setting whenever data is generated by asymptotically stationary and contractive dynamics. Next, we use the decoupling technique to characterize the graceful degradation in RCPS guarantees when the data generating process deviates from stationarity and contractivity. Finally, we use the stitching technique to propose a novel online QRC algorithm that attains non-trivial guarantees against nearly arbitrary data generating processes. We conclude by discussing how these tools could be used toward a unified analysis of offline and online conformal prediction algorithms, which are currently treated with very different tools.Publication The Neurodegenerative Effects of Occupational Blasts On Military and Law Enforcement Personnel(2024-05-01) Lemus, RobertoThis paper gives a thorough analysis of current and past research on the neurodegenerative effects of blast overpressure on military and law enforcement personnel. Chronic neurodegenerative disease has historically been studied among sports such as football and boxing, leading to both pathological and symptomatological findings that have been used as diagnosis tools. The start of war in the Middle East led to a discovery in the same pathological and symptomatological discoveries in military settings. Blast overpressure waves are suspected to be the catalyst attributing to these findings, produced through occupational factors such as weapons. The research analyzed in this paper is used to give a concluding set of general guidelines for prevention practices that can be applied to military and law enforcement training settings. The use of brain proteins as a diagnostic tool for chronic neurodegenerative diseases like CTE is discussed.Publication New Courts on the Block: A Comparative Analysis of Bankruptcy Law in China and the United States(2024-05-01) Klein, ScottThis paper examines the factors impacting utilization of China's Enterprise Bankruptcy Law (“EBL”). After a decade of underutilization, the EBL has experienced a significant increase in filings over the past decade. Utilizing legal formalism as an analytical framework, this paper conducts a comparative legal analysis with the United States Bankruptcy Code and analyzes historical data to explain the EBL’s use. The findings reveal that although there are substantial textual differences between the bankruptcy laws, the recent surge in EBL applications correlates more strongly with the establishment of specialized bankruptcy courts in China. This suggests that the choice of venue, influenced by the availability of these specialized courts, may be a key driver behind the increased use of bankruptcy filings. The paper concludes by highlighting the limitations of the current data and calls for more detailed, micro-level case studies to further explore the dynamics affecting bankruptcy law applications in China.