Statistics Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

2011

Publication Source

Annals of Applied Statistics

Volume

5

Issue

2A

Start Page

746

Last Page

772

DOI

10.1214/10-AOAS424

Abstract

We study the causal effect of winning an Oscar Award on an actor or actress’s survival. Does the increase in social rank from a performer winning an Oscar increase the performer’s life expectancy? Previous studies of this issue have suffered from healthy performer survivor bias, that is, candidates who are healthier will be able to act in more films and have more chance to win Oscar Awards. To correct this bias, we adapt Robins’ rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model and g-estimation method. We show in simulation studies that this approach corrects the bias contained in previous studies. We estimate that the effect of winning an Oscar Award on survival is 4.2 years, with a 95% confidence interval of [−0.4, 8.4] years. There is not strong evidence that winning an Oscar increases life expectancy.

Keywords

casual inference, survival analysis, Oscar award, rank preserving structural accelerated failure time model, g-estimation

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.