Statistics Papers
Document Type
Journal Article
Date of this Version
2010
Publication Source
Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing
Volume
4
Issue
1
Start Page
30
Last Page
45
DOI
10.1108/17505931011033542
Abstract
Retail buyers' forecasts, decisions, and subsequent purchases result in billions of dollars of merchandise being purchased and offered for sale by retailers around the world. However, academic research examining this decision process has been limited, and recommendations for improvement almost nonexistent. In the present study, we begin to address this issue by introducing a new approach that compares retail buyers' consensus forecasts with those from a sample of “ordinary” consumers. The potential for incorporating forecasts from ordinary consumers suggests an opportunity to create what are termed retail prediction markets, which offer significant potential to improve the accuracy of buyers’ forecasts. We conclude with limitations and areas for future research.
Keywords
Forecasting, Retailing, Buyers, Consumer behavior
Recommended Citation
Kaufman-Scarborough, C., Morrin, M., Petro, G., & Bradlow, E. T. (2010). Improving the Crystal Ball: Consumer Consensus and Retail Prediction Markets. Journal of Research in Interactive Marketing, 4 (1), 30-45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17505931011033542
Date Posted: 27 November 2017
This document has been peer reviewed.