Real Estate Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

9-2008

Publication Source

Journal of Urban Economics

Volume

64

Issue

2

Start Page

198

Last Page

217

DOI

10.1016/j.jue.2008.07.007

Abstract

Like many other assets, housing prices are quite volatile relative to observable changes in fundamentals. If we are going to understand boom-bust housing cycles, we must incorporate housing supply. In this paper, we present a simple model of housing bubbles that predicts that places with more elastic housing supply have fewer and shorter bubbles, with smaller price increases. However, the welfare consequences of bubbles may actually be higher in more elastic places because those places will overbuild more in response to a bubble. The data show that the price run-ups of the 1980s were almost exclusively experienced in cities where housing supply is more inelastic. More elastic places had slightly larger increases in building during that period. Over the past five years, a modest number of more elastic places also experienced large price booms, but as the model suggests, these booms seem to have been quite short. Prices are already moving back towards construction costs in those areas.

Copyright/Permission Statement

© 2008. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.