PSC Working Paper Series
The Population Studies Center (PSC) Working Paper Series is open to PSC research associates. It serves as an outlet for pre-prints, for papers under journal review, and for background papers (e.g., for technical materials for which journals lack space). The series will also entertain submissions from students affiliated with PSC research associates. In such cases, the submission should be accompanied by a letter from a PSC research associate stating that she or he has read the paper, that it conforms to high professional standards, and that she or he wishes to sponsor its appearance in the series. Papers can be submitted to psc_library@mailman.ssc.upenn.edu.
The PSC is also home to the Population Aging Research Center (PARC) which also has a working paper series available, the PARC Working Paper Series.
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Publication Discrete Games in Endogenous Networks: Theory and Policy(2013-02-01) Badev, AntonThis paper develops a framework for analyzing individuals' choices in the presence of endogenous social networks and implements it with data on teen smoking decisions and friendship networks. By allowing actions and friendships to be jointly chosen, the framework extends the literature on social interactions, which either models choices, taking the social network as given, or which models friendship selection without incorporating additional choices. In the context of a large population network game, this paper also introduces the notion of k-player Nash stability. This solution concept subsumes the Nash equilibrium and, as k decreases, gradually relaxes the assumptions of rationality and coordination underlying the Nash play. I show how the strategic interactions of the static one-shot play are embedded in an evolutionary model of network formation, which I estimate with social network data from United States high schools. The empirical analysis demonstrates the importance of modeling the joint decisions of friendships and smoking in evaluating existing and proposed new policies targeting teen smoking prevalence. These include policies related to school racial desegregation, separating middle and high school grades, and anti-smoking campaigns. Neglecting the endogeneity of the friendship network leads to a downward bias of 10% to 15% on the predicted effect of these policies on adolescent smoking rates.Publication Is the High Level of Obesity in the United States Related to Its Low Life Expectancy?(2011-09-22) Preston, Samuel H.; Stokes, AndrewBackground. The US has the highest prevalence of obesity and one of the lowest life expectancies among OECD countries. While it is plausible to assume that these two phenomena are related, no previous attempt has been made to identify the connection between them. Our paper uses primary data on body mass index (BMI) in 16 countries and detailed information on the mortality risks of obesity to estimate the effect of international differences in obesity on comparative levels of longevity. Methods. We estimate the fraction of deaths from all causes attributable to obesity by country, age and sex. We then re-estimate life tables in 2006 by removing deaths attributable to obesity. To allow for the possibility of a secular decline in obesity risks, we employ two alternative sets of risks drawn from a more recent period than the baseline risks. Results. In our baseline analysis, we estimate that US life expectancy at age 50 in 2006 was reduced by 1.54 years (95% condence interval (CI) 1.37-1.93) for women and by 1.85 years (1.62-2.10) for men as a result of obesity. Relative to higher life expectancy countries, allowance for obesity reduces the US shortfall in life expectancy by 42% (36-48) for women and 67% (57-76) for men. Using obesity risks that were recorded more recently, differences in obesity still account for a fifth to a third of the shortfall of life expectancy in the US relative to longer-lived countries. Conclusions. The high prevalence of obesity in the US contributes substantially to its poor international ranking in longevity.Publication Marriage and Divorce: Changes and their Driving Forces(2007-05-10) Stevenson, Betsey; Wolfers, JustinWe document key facts about marriage and divorce, comparing trends through the past 150 years and outcomes across demographic groups and countries. While divorce rates have risen over the past 150 years, they have been falling for the past quarter century. Marriage rates have also been falling, but more strikingly, the importance of marriage at different points in the life cycle has changed, reflecting rising age at first marriage, rising divorce followed by high remarriage rates, and a combination of increased longevity with a declining age gap between husbands and wives. Cohabitation has also become increasingly important, emerging as a widely used step on the path to marriage. Out-of-wedlock fertility has also risen, consistent with declining “shotgun marriages”. Compared with other countries, marriage maintains a central role in American life. We present evidence on some of the driving forces causing these changes in the marriage market: the rise of the birth control pill and women’s control over their own fertility; sharp changes in wage structure, including a rise in inequality and partial closing of the gender wage gap; dramatic changes in home production technologies; and the emergence of the internet as a new matching technology. We note that recent changes in family forms demand a reassessment of theories of the family and argue that consumption complementarities may be an increasingly important component of marriage. Finally, we discuss the welfare implications of these changes.Publication The Likoma Network Study: Context, Data Collection and Initial Results(2007-06-09) Helleringer, Stephane; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Chimbiri, Agnes; Chatonda, Praise; Mkandawire, JamesThe sexual networks connecting members of a population have important consequences for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV. However, very few datasets currently exist that allow an investigation of the structure of sexual networks, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where HIV epidemics have become generalized. In this paper, we describe the context and methods of the Likoma Network Study (LNS), a survey of complete sexual networks we conducted in Likoma island (Malawi) between October 2005 and March 2006. We start by reviewing theoretical arguments and empirical studies emphasizing the importance of network structures for the epidemiology of sexually and transmitted diseases. We describe the island setting of this study, and argue that the choice of an island as research site addresses the possible sources of bias in the collection of complete network data. We then describe in detail our empirical strategy for the identification of sexual networks, as well as for the collection of biomarker data (HIV infection). Finally, we provide initial results relating to the socioeconomic context of the island, the size and composition of sexual networks, the prevalence of HIV in the study population, the quality of the sexual network data, the determinants of successful contact tracing during the LNS, and basic measures of network connectivity.Publication Divorce-Law Changes, Household Bargaining, and Married Women's Labor Supply Revisited(2007-05-10) Stevenson, BetseyDivorce law changes made in the 1970s affected marital formation, dissolution, and bargaining within marriage. By altering the terms of the marital contract these legal changes impacted the incentives for women to enter and remain in the labor force. Whereas earlier work had suggested that the impact of unilateral divorce on female employment depended critically on laws governing property division, I show that these results are not robust to alternative specifications and controls. I find instead that unilateral divorce led to an increase in both married and unmarried female labor force participation, regardless of the underlying property laws.Publication Africans in the American Labor Market(2015-08-25) Elo, Irma T.; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Gansey, Romeo; Thomas, DuncanThe number of migrants to the United States from Africa has grown exponentially since the 1930s. For the first time in America’s history, migrants born in Africa are growing at a faster rate than migrants from any other continent. The composition of African-origin migrants has also changed dramatically: in the midtwentieth century, the majority were white and came from only three countries; but today, about one-fifth are white, and African-origin migrants hail from across the entire continent. Little is known about the implications of these changes for their labor market outcomes in the United States. Using the 2000–2011 waves of the American Community Survey, we present a picture of enormous heterogeneity in labor market participation, sectoral choice, and hourly earnings of male and female migrants by country of birth, race, age at arrival in the United States, and human capital. For example, controlling a rich set of human capital and demographic characteristics, some migrants— such as those from South Africa/Zimbabwe and Cape Verde, who typically enter on employment visas—earn substantial premiums relative to other African-origin migrants. These premiums are especially large among males who arrived after age 18. In contrast, other migrants—such as those from Sudan/Somalia, who arrived more recently, mostly as refugees—earn substantially less than migrants from other African countries. Understanding the mechanisms generating the heterogeneity in these outcomes— including levels of socioeconomic development, language, culture, and quality of education in countries of origin, as well as selectivity of those who migrate—figures prominently among important unresolved research questions.Publication It is Lower Than You Think it is: Recent Total Fertility Rates in Brazil and Possibly Other Latin American Countries(2015-09-03) Castanheira, Helena Cruz; Kohler, Hans-PeterUnderstanding emerging patterns of low fertility in middle-income countries is of essential importance. We demonstrate that the use of the P/F Brass methods in Brazil to adjust for a presumed underreporting of births has the potential to overestimate the country’s 2010 TFR by about 8%. Our preferred fertility-register-based estimate is 1.76, substantially lower the officially reported 1.90. This overstatement of fertility in official statistics has important consequences: compared to our analyses, for example, the UN World Population Prospects (UN WPP) overestimate recent TFR levels, and underestimates additional TFR declines during 2015-30, resulting in a projected 2050 population for Brazil that is 7 million larger and almost one year younger than projections using a 2010 TFR of 1.76. Several other Latin American countries are possibly subject to similarly upward-biased official TFRs that result from the use of the P/F Brass method in contexts of declining TFRs accompanied by an onset of fertility postponement. We hence believe several Latin American countries have progressed further in the transition towards low fertility than is reflected in official or UN WPP estimates. Our analyses also suggest that the further use of the P/F method in these countries should be carefully evaluated.Publication Homeownership of Immigrants in France: Selection Effects Related to International Migration Flows(2015-11-01) Gobillon, Laurent; Solignac, MatthieuWe investigate the difference in homeownership rates between natives and first-generation immigrants in France, and how this difference evolves over the 1975-1999 period, by using a large longitudinal dataset. We find that the homeownership gap is large and has increased. Entries into the territory have a large negative effect on the evolution of homeownership rates for immigrants. Although entrants have on average better education than people staying in the territory for the entire period (i.e. stayers), they are younger and thus at an earlier stage in the wealth accumulation process. They are also located in large cities, where the homeownership rate is lower, and the returns to their characteristics are lower than those for stayers. Leavers have a positive effect on the evolution of homeownership rates for immigrants because they have a low access to homeownership and they exit the country. But this effect is only one-third that of entrants. For stayers, we show that returns to characteristics change in favor of immigrants, which is consistent with assimilation theories. However, among stayers who access homeownership, immigrants end up in owned dwellings that are of lesser quality than natives.Publication Demographic Transition Revisited: Low Fertility, Socioeconomic Development, and Gender Equity(2015-05-15) Anderson, Thomas M.; Kohler, Hans-PeterWhile new empirical findings and theoretical frameworks provide insight into the interrelations between socioeconomic development, gender equity, and low fertility, puzzling exceptions and outliers in these findings call for a more all-encompassing framework to understand the inter-play between these processes. We argue that the pace and onset of development are two important factors to be considered when analyzing gender equity and fertility. Within the developed world, “first-wave developers”—or countries that began socioeconomic development in the 19th/early 20th century – currently have much higher fertility levels than “late developers”. We lay out a novel theoretical approach to explain why this is the case and provide empirical evidence to support our argument. Our approach not only explains historical periods of low fertility but also sheds light on why there exists such large variance in fertility rates among to-day’s developed countries.Publication Cohort Profile: The Migration and Health in Malawi (MHM) Study(2017-04-05) Anglewicz, Philip; VanLandingham, Mark; Manda-Taylor, Lucinda; Kohler, Hans-PeterThe Migration and Health in Malawi (MHM) Study focuses on a key challenge in migration research: although it has long been established that migration and health are closely linked, identifying the effect of migration on various health outcomes is complicated by methodological challenges. To address these challenges, the MHM Study was designed to measure or control for important characteristics that affect both migration and health outcomes. This approach is particularly well-suited for distinguishing between the effect of migration on health and the selection of individuals of differing health status into migration classes (migrant versus non-migrant). Data are available for two waves of MHM, which took place in 2007 and 2013, and include extensive information on migration history, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, sexual behaviors, marriage, household/family structure, risk perceptions, social networks and social capital, intergenerational relations, HIV/AIDS and other dimensions of health. The MHM public use data can be requested by contacting the Principal Investigator (Philip Anglewicz, panglewi@tulane.edu).