Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC)
The Population Center Working Papers (PSC/PARC) series contains papers by researchers at the PSC/PARC. It serves as an outlet for pre-prints, for papers under journal review, and for background papers (e.g., for technical materials for which journals lack space) written by PSC/PARC Research Associates. The series also publishes submissions from students affiliated with Research Associates at the PSC/PARC with Research Associate sponsorship. The PSC/PARC series combines works previously published in the Population Studies Center Working Paper Series and the Population Aging Research Center Working Paper Series and also includes papers from the Penn Education and Inequality Working Papers Series. Papers can be submitted by emailing: psc-library@pop.upenn.edu.
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Publication Alcohol Use, Genetics, and Cognitive Decline(2024-10-01) Ho, Pei-ChuanAlcohol Use Disorder (AUD) is a major public health issue in the U.S., affecting 14.5 million people aged 12 and older in 2019, though only 7.2% sought treatment. AUD is linked to cognitive decline and dementia, placing a significant burden on individuals, families, and society. Both alcohol consumption and cognitive decline are often influenced by unobserved factors such as genetics and personality, raising concerns about endogeneity. To address the endogeneity stemmed from genetics, we used Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data to study alcohol consumption in individuals aged 50 and by taking advantage of the availability of both alcohol consumption behavior data and genetic information. By using polygenic scores (PGS), which summarize the genetic predisposition of alcohol consumption, we found some evidence of positive correlation between alcohol consumption and cognitive decline: heavy alcohol consumption was associated with worse cognitive status. Though it is still difficult to claim causal relationship between alcohol consumption and cognitive decline due to the complexity of unobserved characteristics related to both, our approach was able to alleviate endogeneity stemmed from genetics.Publication Understanding the Dynamic Process of Older Adult Behavior Changes for Disaster Preparedness: An Application of the Integrated Transtheoretical Model with Social Cognitive Theory and Protection Motivation Theory(2024-09-30) Ma, Chenyi; Culhane, Dennis; Bachman, Sara S.Integrating the Transtheoretical Model with Social Cognitive Theory and Protection Motivation Theory, we propose a new model to study the progress of behavior changes towards disaster preparedness along three developmental stages: from “not prepared” (NP), to “intention to prepare” (IP), to “already prepared” (AP). Using the 2021 National Household Survey data (FEMA, N = 6,180), we tested this model by employing a series of nested weighted generalized ordered logistic regressions. We found that, although Hispanics have a larger prevalence of IP than their non-Hispanic white counterparts, they are less likely to move to the AP stage. The observed ethnicdisparity is largely due to the disparities in actual behavioral capabilities in essential knowledge and access to resources between the two groups. Personal disaster experience, social/observational learning, self-efficacy, and risk perception each facilitate behavior changes from the NP to IP or AP stage (i.e., departure from NP stage) and from NP or IP stage to AP stage (i.e., arrival at AP stage). Although income does not necessarily influence one’s decision to depart from the NP stage, it determines one’s arrival at the AP stage. Increasing one’s income further boosts the realization of AP for people with high-risk perceptions. However, for people with moderate or low levels of risk perceptions, increased income did not lead to arrival at the AP stage. Additional research is needed to more fully apply this processoriented approach with new measurement introduced in this paper to study the behavior changes among subpopulations in exposure to specific hazards.Publication U.S. Long-term Care Infrastructure and Co-resident Kin Living Arrangements among Older Adults(2024-09-23) Parrish, Elise M.Population aging and the retraction of the long term care infrastructure likely have important consequences for the care and living arrangements of older adults and their families, but this is relatively unexplored. Advancing a political economy of long-term care (LTC) approach, this study considers whether, how, and for whom, variation in state and local LTC infrastructure is consequential for older adults’ co-resident kin living arrangements. I construct a novel dataset merging eight years (2012–2019) of individual-level data from the American Community Survey (N=4,170,768), state Medicaid LTC expenditure data, and county-level nursing home data. Descriptive analyses show that low-SES, Black and/or Latinx, and disabled older adults are more likely to live in areas with weaker local care infrastructure. Results from fixed effects models indicate that higher state expenditures on long-term care and higher local availability of nursing home care correspond with decreases in the likelihood that older adults who are disabled, aged 75+, and low-SES will live with an adult child or other non-spousal family member. Taken together, these findings suggest that insufficient long-term care infrastructure environments may coerce family co-resident care and systematically exacerbate existing inequalities by constraining the care options available to structurally vulnerable older adults and their family members.Publication Is the Growing Burden of Non-Communicable Diseases in India Preventable?(2024-06-19) Gaiha, Raghav; Kulkarni, Vani S.; Unnikrishnan, VidhyaNon-Communicable Disease (NCD) morbidity and mortality as shares of total morbidity and mortality have risen steadily in India and projected to surge rapidly. In 1990, NCDs accounted for 40% of all Indian mortality and are now projected to account for three quarters of all deaths by 2030. Currently, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, respiratory illness, and diabetes are the leading causes of death in India, accounting for almost 50% of all deaths. Underlying these rising shares are growing risks that are common to several NCDs. NCDs are chronic in nature and take a long time to develop. They are linked to aging and affluence and have replaced infectious diseases and malnutrition as the dominant causes of ill health and death in much of the world including India. Some NCDs cause others and create clusters of co-morbid conditions (e.g., diabetes can lead to kidney failure and blindness). Old-age morbidity is a rapidly worsening curse in India. The swift descent of the elderly in India (60 years +) into non-communicable diseases (e.g., cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes) could have disastrous consequences in terms of impoverishment of families, excess mortality, lowering of investment and deceleration of economic growth. Indeed, the government must deal simultaneously with the rising fiscal burden of NCDs and substantial burden of infectious diseases. The present study seeks to answer three questions: Why has the prevalence of two NCDs, diabetes and heart diseases risen in recent years? Given the surge in these diseases, whether social protection policies and restructuring of medical services can mitigate such surges in the near future? A related but equally important concern is whether lifestyle and dietary changes could be induced to further prevent the rising burden of these NCDs. Our analysis is based on the only all-India panel survey-India Human Development survey that covers 2005 and 2012. This survey was conducted jointly by University of Maryland and National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi. A robust econometric methodology-specifically, 2SLS- is used to address the endogeneity of key explanatory variables. The results here stress the need to make sure that pension and healthcare reforms are accompanied by greater awareness, expansion of old age pensions and public hospitals, and effective regulation of both public and private hospitals. Key words: NCDs, Diabetes, Heart diseases, Old age and other pensions, Hospitals, IndiaPublication Infant Mortality Expectation and Fertility Choice in Rural Malawi(2024-06) Delavande, Adeline; Kohler, Hans-Peter; Vergili, AliFor decades, population research has been interested in the complex relationship between child mortality and fertility, with a key focus on identifying replacement behavior (fertility response to experienced child mortality) and hoarding behavior (fertility response to expected child mortality). Using unique data from the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH), we investigate the impact of individual-specific subjective infant mortality expectations on fertility choice. We instrument the potentially endogenous infant mortality expectations with the average of parents’ ratings of children’s health to address a potentially omitted variable bias such as parental taste for health. Consistent with the hoarding mechanism, we find that a 10 percentage point decrease in infant mortality expectations leads to a 14 percentage point decrease in the propensity to have a child in the next 2 years from a baseline propensity of 43%.Publication The Household Equipment Revolution(2024-05-10) Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, NezihA brief historical overview of the household equipment revolution and the women who transformed the home in Germany and the United States.Publication Food Coma is Real: The Effect of Digestive Fatigue on Adolescents' Cognitive Performance(2024-04-12) Hervé, Justine; Mani, Subha; Behrman, Jere; Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Arindam, NandiFood coma, also known as postprandial somnolence, is a commonly cited reason for experiencing reduced alertness during mid-afternoon worldwide. By using exogenous variation in the timing of tests and, hence, by extension, plausibly exogenous variation in the temporal distance between an individual’s last meal and the time of test, we examine the causal impact of postprandial somnolence on cognitive capacities. Analyzing novel time use data on ∼ 4,600 Indian adolescents and young adults, we find that testing within an hour after a meal reduces test-takers’ scores on English, native language, math, and Raven’s tests by 8, 8, 8, and 16 percent, respectively, compared to test-takers who took the tests more than an hour after their meal. We further find that the negative effect of postprandial somnolence on cognition operates through increased feelings of fatigue and depletion of cognitive resources that become more pronounced while dealing with more challenging test questions.Publication Communication with Kin in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic(2023-09-06) Reed, Megan N.; Li, Linda; Pesando, Luca Maria; Harris, Lauren E.; Furstenberg, Frank F.; Teitler, Julien O.This study investigates patterns of communication among non-coresident kin in the aftermath of a crisis – the COVID-19 pandemic – focusing on a representative sample of New York City residents from the Poverty Tracker survey. Over half of New Yorkers spoke to their non-coresident family members several times a week during the pandemic and nearly half reported that their communication with non-coresident kin increased since March 2020. Extended kin proved to be important with 27.57% of respondents reporting that they increased communication with at least one extended family member. However, the kin type that New Yorkers were most likely to report increased communication with were siblings, revealing the importance of these ties during times of crisis. Communication with kin varied by sociodemographic characteristics. Women spoke with family members outside of their household more frequently and had higher odds of reporting that their communication increased. There was little support for the oft-stated premise that disadvantaged families by race or social class display greater patterns of kin engagement. In fact, the findings point to the opposite conclusion that families with greater economic resources generally engage with both their nuclear and extended kin more frequently, illuminating patterns of inequality in access to kin resources that may extend well beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this study sheds light on an important yet oft-neglected driver of intra- and inter-generational inequalities, namely access to kin ties as a form of social capital to be activated and leveraged when need arises.Publication Busy Bees: How Does Conscientiousness Affect Labor Market Outcomes?(2024-02-07) Hervé, Justine; Purcell, Helene; Mani, SubhaPersonality traits play an important role in shaping labor market outcomes, but the associated behaviors that lead to these differences are understudied. In this paper, we examine the returns to the Big Five personality traits as well as the mechanisms through which personality affects employment and earnings. We find conscientiousness to be a significant predictor of both employment and earnings. We further show that the association between conscientiousness and earnings operates primarily through one specific behavior, namely, higher work intensity. Additionally, we are able to rule out selection into specific job types as potential channels for the positive relationship between conscientiousness and earnings.Publication The Role of Friends in the Opioid Epidemic(2024-02-07) Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kopecky, Karen A.The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of someone misusing opioids on the probability that their best friends also misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is driven by individuals without a college degree and those who live in the same county as their best friends.