Operations, Information and Decisions Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

6-2011

Publication Source

Journal of Consumer Research

Volume

38

Issue

1

Start Page

1

Last Page

15

DOI

10.1086/658070

Abstract

Although researchers have documented many instances of crowd wisdom, it is important to know whether some kinds of judgments may lead the crowd astray, whether crowds’ judgments improve with feedback over time, and whether crowds’ judgments can be improved by changing the way judgments are elicited. We investigated these questions in a sports gambling context (predictions against point spreads) believed to elicit crowd wisdom. In a season-long experiment, fans wagered over $20,000 on NFL football predictions. Contrary to the wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis, faulty intuitions led the crowd to predict “favorites” more than “underdogs” against point spreads that disadvantaged favorites, even when bettors knew that the spreads disadvantaged favorites. Moreover, the bias increased over time, a result consistent with attributions for success and failure that rewarded intuitive choosing. However, when the crowd predicted game outcomes by estimating point differentials rather than by predicting against point spreads, its predictions were unbiased and wiser.

Copyright/Permission Statement

(Postprint statement) This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in © 2011 by JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCH, Inc. following peer review. The version of record Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., Galak, J., & Frederick, S. (2011). Intuitive biases in choice versus estimation: Implications for the wisdom of crowds. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 1-15. is available online at: xxxxxxx [insert URL that the author will receive upon publication here].

(Postprint statement) This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in [insert journal title] following peer review. The version of record [insert complete citation information here] is available online at: xxxxxxx [insert URL that the author will receive upon publication here].

Comments

At the time of publication, author Joseph P. Simmons was affiliated with the Yale university. Currently (July 2016), he is a faculty member in the Operation, Information and Decision Department of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.