Date of this Version
Journal of Consumer Research
Although researchers have documented many instances of crowd wisdom, it is important to know whether some kinds of judgments may lead the crowd astray, whether crowds’ judgments improve with feedback over time, and whether crowds’ judgments can be improved by changing the way judgments are elicited. We investigated these questions in a sports gambling context (predictions against point spreads) believed to elicit crowd wisdom. In a season-long experiment, fans wagered over $20,000 on NFL football predictions. Contrary to the wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis, faulty intuitions led the crowd to predict “favorites” more than “underdogs” against point spreads that disadvantaged favorites, even when bettors knew that the spreads disadvantaged favorites. Moreover, the bias increased over time, a result consistent with attributions for success and failure that rewarded intuitive choosing. However, when the crowd predicted game outcomes by estimating point differentials rather than by predicting against point spreads, its predictions were unbiased and wiser.
(Postprint statement) This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in © 2011 by JOURNAL OF CONSUMER RESEARCH, Inc. following peer review. The version of record Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., Galak, J., & Frederick, S. (2011). Intuitive biases in choice versus estimation: Implications for the wisdom of crowds. Journal of Consumer Research, 38(1), 1-15. is available online at: xxxxxxx [insert URL that the author will receive upon publication here].(Postprint statement) This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in [insert journal title] following peer review. The version of record [insert complete citation information here] is available online at: xxxxxxx [insert URL that the author will receive upon publication here].
Simmons, J. P., Nelson, L. D., Galak, J., & Fredrick, S. (2011). Intuitive Biases in Choice Versus Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds. Journal of Consumer Research, 38 (1), 1-15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/658070
Date Posted: 27 November 2017
This document has been peer reviewed.