Date of this Version
Strategic Management Journal
Why do some new technologies emerge and quickly supplant incumbent technologies while others take years or decades to take off? We explore this question by presenting a framework that considers both the focal competing technologies as well as the ecosystems in which they are embedded. Within our framework, each episode of technology transition is characterized by the ecosystem emergence challenge that confronts the new technology and the ecosystem extension opportunity that is available to the old technology. We identify four qualitatively distinct regimes with clear predictions for the pace of substitution. Evidence from 10 episodes of technology transitions in the semiconductor lithography equipment industry from 1972 to 2009 offers strong support for our framework. We discuss the implication of our approach for firm strategy.
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Ron Adner & Rahul Kapoor (2016), "Innovation Ecosystems and the Pace of Substitution: Re-Examining Technology S-Curves" in Strategic Management Journal 37(4), which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.2363. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving [http://olabout.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-820227.html#terms].
Adner, R., & Kapoor, R. (2016). Innovation Ecosystems and the Pace of Substitution: Re-Examining Technology S-Curves. Strategic Management Journal, 37 (4), 625-648. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/smj.2363
Date Posted: 19 February 2018
This document has been peer reviewed.