Marketing Papers

 

Wharton's Marketing professors - the largest, most cited, and most published marketing faculty in the world - specialize in translating their state-of-the-art research into practical tools that managers can use to make better decisions.

Snack-food giant Frito-Lay, for example, needed to know if the billions it spent each year on advertising was working. Marriott wanted to launch a new chain of residence hotels, but wasn't sure how the market would react to the idea. Shell Oil wanted to redefine product offerings based on customers' perceptions and needs.These are just a handful of the corporations that have improved performance, launched new products, and refined their pricing and merchandising tactics using the market research tools created by the Wharton Marketing Department.

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Papers from 2017

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Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green

Papers from 2014

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Understanding the Effect of Advertising on Stock Returns and Firm Value: Theory and Evidence From a Structural Model, Maria Ana Vitorino

Papers from 2012

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Moneyball: Message for Managers, J. Scott Armstrong

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What Matters Most in Internet Retailing, David R. Bell, Jeonghye Choi, and Leonard Lodish

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Evidence on the Effects of Mandatory Disclaimers in Advertising With reply to commentators: Should We Put a Price on Free Speech?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Decision Quicksand: How Trivial Choices Suck Us In, Aner Sela and Jonah A. Berger

Papers from 2011

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Evidence-based Advertising, J. Scott Armstrong

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Illusions in Regression Analysis, J. Scott Armstrong

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Natural Learning in Higher Education, J. Scott Armstrong

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Reply to the Commentaries on "Evidence-Based Advertising", J. Scott Armstrong

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Research on Forecasting for the Manmade Global Warming Alarm: Testimony to Committee on Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Energy and Environment on "Climate Change: Examining the processes used to create science and policy", J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon

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Can Losing Lead to Winning?, Jonah A. Berger and Devin Pope

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Research With Built-in Replication: Comment and Further Suggestions for Replication Research, Heiner Evanschitzky and J. Scott Armstrong

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Comparing Face-to-Face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong

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Role Thinking: Standing in Other People's Shoes to Forecast Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2010

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Replications of Forecasting Research, J. Scott Armstrong

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Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates: A Test of the Index Method, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe

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Predicting Elections from the Most Important Issue: A Test of the Take-the-Best Heuristic, J. Scott Armstrong and Andreas Graefe

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Forecasting Principles, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe

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Positive Effects of Negative Publicity: When Negative Reviews Increase Sales, Jonah A. Berger, Alan T. Sorensen, and Scott J. Rasmussen

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Subtle Signals of Inconspicuous Consumption, Jonah A. Berger and Morgan Ward

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Conditions Under Which Index Models Are Useful, Andreas Graefe and J. Scott Armstrong

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Forecasting, Andreas Graefe, Kesten C. Green, and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2009

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Using Quasi-Experimental Data to Develop Empirical Generalizations for Persuasive Advertising, J. Scott Armstrong and Sandeep Patnaik

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Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote, Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán, and Randall J. Jones Jr.

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Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon

Papers from 2008

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Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Randall J. Jones Jr., and Malcolm Wright

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Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon

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What is the Appropriate Public-Policy Response to Uncertainty?, J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Willie Soon

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Putting One-to-one Marketing to Work: Personalization, Customization, and Choice, Neeraj Arora, Xavier Drèze, Anindya Ghose, James D. Hess, Raghuram Iyengar, Bing Jing, Yogesh V. Joshi, V Kumar, Nicholas H. Lurie, Scott Neslin, S Sajeesh, Meng Su, Niladri B. Syam, Jacquelyn Thomas, and Z John Zhang

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Who Drives Divergence? Identity Signaling, Outgroup Dissimilarity, and the Abandonment of Cultural Tastes, Jonah A. Berger

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A Price Discrimination Model of Trade Promotions, Tony Haitao Cui, Jagmohan S. Raju, and Z John Zhang

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An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Communication Timing on Customer Equity, Xavier Drèze and André Bonfrer

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Benchmark Forecasts for Climate Change, Kester C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon

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Beyond Conjoint Analysis: Advances in Preference Measurement, Oded Netzer, Olivier Toubia, Eric T. Bradlow, Ely Dahan, Theodoros Evgeniou, Fred M. Feinberg, Eleanor M. Feit, Sam K. Hui, Joseph Johnson, John Liechty, James B. Orlin, and Vithala R. Rao

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Sequential Sampling Models of Choice: Some Recent Advances, Thomas Otter, Joe Johnson, Jörg Rieskamp, Greg M. Allenby, Jeff D. Brazell, Adele Diederich, Wesley Hutchinson, Steven MacEachern, Shiling Ruan, and Jim Townsend

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The Ombudsman: Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?, Malcom Wright and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2007

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Forecasting of Software Development Work Effort: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong

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Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done and Properly Interpreted: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong

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Rule-based Forecasting: Development and Validation of an Expert Systems Approach to Combining Time Series Extrapolations, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy

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Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to American Presidential Elections, J. Scott Armstrong and Alfred G. Cúzan

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Where Consumers Diverge from Others: Identity Signaling and Product Domains, Jonah A. Berger and Chip Heath

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Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend, Heiner Evanschitzky, Carsten Baumgarth, Raymond Hubbard, and J. Scott Armstrong

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Structured analogies for forecasting, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, and Andreas Graefe

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Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections, Randall J. Jones Jr., J. Scott Armstrong, and Alfred G. Cuzán

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The Effects of Attrition on the Growth and Equity of Competitive Services, Barak Libai, Eiton Muller, and Renana Peres

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Review of Philip E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know?, Adrian E. Tschoegl and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2006

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Findings from evidence-based forecasting: methods for reducing forecast error, J. Scott Armstrong

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How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-based Forecasting: Reply to Commentaries, J. Scott Armstrong

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How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings, J. Scott Armstrong

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Making progress in forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and Robert Fildes

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Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share, J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green

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Why We Don’t Really Know What "Statistical Significance" Means: A Major Educational Failure, Raymond Hubbard and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2005

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The forecasting canon: nine generalizations to improve forecast accuracy, J. Scott Armstrong

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Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and J. Thomas Yokum

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Theory-Driven Choice Models, Tülin Erdem, Kannan Srinivasan, Wilfred Amaldoss, Patrick Bajari, Hai Che, Teck Ho, Wesley Hutchinson, Michael Katz, Michael Keane, Robert Meyer, and Peter Reiss

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The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2004

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Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong

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Does an Academic Research Paper Contain Useful Knowledge? No. (p<.05), J. Scott Armstrong

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Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?, J. Scott Armstrong

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Answers to Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, and Kesten Green

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Do Promotions Increase Store Expenditures? A Descriptive Study of Household Shopping Behavior, Xavier Drèze, Patricia Nisol, and Naufel J. Vilcassim

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Consumer Shopping and Spending Across Retail Formats, Edward J. Fox, Alan L. Montgomery, and Leonard Lodish

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Structured analogies in forecasting, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts, Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong

Papers from 2003

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Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: evidence and proposals, J. Scott Armstrong

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Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Anthony Pratkanis and Elliot Aronson, Age of Propaganda: The Everyday Use and Abuse of Persuasion, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Ray Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things, J. Scott Armstrong

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Review of Roy Batchelor: How useful are the forecasts of intergovernmental agencies? The IMF and OECD versus the consensus, J. Scott Armstrong

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The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong

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The Ombudsman: Reaping Benefits from Management Research: Lessons from the Forecasting Principles Project, J. Scott Armstrong and Ruth Pagell

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Use of Marketing Metrics: A Different Point of View, Leonard Lodish

Papers from 2002

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Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment, J. Scott Armstrong

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Reputation in Marketing Channels: Repeated-Transactions Bargaining With Two-Sided Uncertainty, Darryl T Banks, Wesley Hutchinson, and Robert J. Meyer

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Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong

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High Stakes Decision Making: Normative, Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations, Howard Kunreuther, Robert Meyer, Richard Zeckhauser, Paul Slovic, Barry Schwartz, Christian Schade, Mary Frances Luce, Steven Lippman, David Krantz, Barbara Kahn, and Robin Hogarth

Papers from 2001

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Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy

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Combining forecasts, J. Scott Armstrong

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Evaluating Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong

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Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data, J. Scott Armstrong

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Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts' Rules for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions, J. Scott Armstrong

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Selecting Forecasting Methods, J. Scott Armstrong

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Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions?, J. Scott Armstrong

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Standards and Practices for Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong

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Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation, J. Scott Armstrong, Monica Adya, and Fred Collopy

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Hypotheses in marketing science: literature review and publication audit, J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie, and Andrew G. Parsons

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Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces, J. Scott Armstrong and Fred Collopy

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Potential Diffusion of Expert Systems in Forecasting, J. Scott Armstrong and J. Thomas Yokum

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Expert Systems for Forecasting, Fred Collopy, Monica Adya, and J. Scott Armstrong

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Beyond the Equal Error Rate - About the Inter-relationship Between Algorithm and Application, Renana Peres

Papers from 2000

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An Application of Rule-based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge, Monica Adya, Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, and Miles Kennedy

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Collaborating to Compete, Wilfred Amaldoss, Robert J. Meyer, Jagmohan S. Raju, and Amnon Rapoport