Marketing Papers

Document Type


Date of this Version

April 1988


The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction in the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a great disaster, and include a formula for redemption. If the disaster occurs, you can say, "I told you so." If it doesn't occur, you say, "It is good that they listened to my advice. I saved them." How can you lose? When I first saw this book, it occurred to me that it was a hoax.


Postprint version. Published in International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 4, Issue 3, April 1988, pages 493-495.
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Date Posted: 14 June 2007

This document has been peer reviewed.