Marketing Papers

Document Type

Technical Report

Date of this Version

8-2015

Publication Source

Journal of Business Research

Volume

68

Issue

8

Start Page

1768

Last Page

1771

DOI

10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.036

Abstract

The Golden Rule of Forecasting is a general rule that applies to all forecasting problems. The Rule was developed using logic and was tested against evidence from previously published comparison studies. The evidence suggests that a single violation of the Golden Rule is likely to increase forecast error by 44%. Some commentators argue that the Rule is not generally applicable, but do not challenge the logic or evidence provided. While further research might provide useful findings, available evidence justifies adopting the Rule now. People with no prior training in forecasting can obtain the substantial benefits of following the Golden Rule by using the Checklist to identify biased and unscientific forecasts at little cost.

Copyright/Permission Statement

Originally published in Journal of Business Research © 2015 Elsevier

This is a pre-final version. The final version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.036

Keywords

cost benefit analysis, index method, legal damage claims, precautionary principle, principal components, take-the-best

Embargo Date

9-1-2018

Available for download on Saturday, September 01, 2018

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Date Posted: 15 June 2018

This document has been peer reviewed.