Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

2002

Publication Source

International Journal of Forecasting

Volume

18

Issue

3

Start Page

321

Last Page

344

DOI

10.1016/S0169-2070(02)00025-0

Abstract

Can game theory aid in forecasting the decision making of parties in a conflict? A review of the literature revealed diverse opinions but no empirical evidence on this question. When put to the test, game theorists’ predictions were more accurate than those from unaided judgement but not as accurate as role-play forecasts. Twenty-one game theorists made 99 forecasts
of decisions for six conflict situations. The same situations were described to 290 research participants, who made 207 forecasts using unaided judgement, and to 933 participants, who made 158 forecasts in active role-playing. Averaged across the six situations, 37 percent of the game theorists’ forecasts, 28 percent of the unaided-judgement forecasts, and 64 percent of the role-play forecasts were correct.

Keywords

Conflict, expert opinion, forecasting, game theory, judgement, role-playing, simulation

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.