Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

1983

Publication Source

Journal of Forecasting

Volume

2

Start Page

259

Last Page

311

Abstract

In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods were compared for forecasts of a variety of economic time series, generally using 1001 time series. Only extrapolative methods were used, as no data were available on causal variables. The accuracies of methods were compared using a variety of accuracy measures for different types of data and for varying forecast horizons. The original paper did not contain much interpretation or discussion. Partly this was by design, to be unbiased in the presentation. A more important factor, however, was the difficulty in gaining consensus on interpretation and presentation among the diverse group of authors, many of whom have a vested interest in certain methods. In the belief that this study was of major importance, we decided to obtain a more complete discussion of the results. We do not believe that “the data speak for themselves.”

Keywords

Forecasting, extrapolation models, economic time series, M-competition, makridakis

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.