Marketing Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

8-2002

Publication Source

Marketing Letters

Volume

13

Issue

3

Start Page

259

Last Page

268

DOI

10.1023/A:1020287225409

Abstract

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme of the discussion is that optimally resolving high-stakes decisions poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools such as decision analysis.. Such problems are difficult to resolve because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as not recognizing a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. We offer an agenda for future research focusing on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.

Copyright/Permission Statement

“The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1020287225409”.

Keywords

high-stakes decisions, risky decision making, decision heuristics, decision biases, decision making under certainty

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.