Marketing Papers

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Working Paper

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Soyer and Hogarth’s article, “The Illusion of Predictability,” shows that diagnostic statistics that are commonly provided with regression analysis lead to confusion, reduced accuracy, and overconfidence. Even highly competent researchers are subject to these problems. This overview examines the Soyer-Hogarth findings in light of prior research on illusions associated with regression analysis. It also summarizes solutions that have been proposed over the past century. These solutions would enhance the value of regression analysis.


Armstrong, J.S. (2011). Illusions in Regression Analysis. Forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting, 2012.



Date Posted: 29 November 2011