Finance Papers

Document Type

Journal Article

Date of this Version

2013

Publication Source

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

Volume

48

Issue

2

Start Page

343

Last Page

375

DOI

10.1017/S002210901300015X

Abstract

Stock market average returns and Sharpe ratios are significantly higher on days when important macroeconomic news about inflation, unemployment, or interest rates is scheduled for announcement. The average announcement-day excess return from 1958 to 2009 is 11.4 basis points (bp) versus 1.1 bp for all the other days, suggesting that over 60% of the cumulative annual equity risk premium is earned on announcement days. The Sharpe ratio is 10 times higher. In contrast, the risk-free rate is detectably lower on announcement days, consistent with a precautionary saving motive. Our results demonstrate a trade-off between macroeconomic risk and asset returns, and provide an estimate of the premium investors demand to bear this risk.

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Date Posted: 27 November 2017

This document has been peer reviewed.