Date of this Version
Journal of Political Economy
The demand for durable goods is more cyclical than that for nondurable goods and services. Consequently, the cash flows and stock returns of durable‐good producers are exposed to higher systematic risk. Using the benchmark input‐output accounts of the National Income and Product Accounts, we construct portfolios of durable‐good, nondurable‐good, and service producers. In the cross section, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the service portfolio earns a risk premium exceeding 4 percent annually. In the time series, an investment strategy that is long on the durable‐good portfolio and short on the market portfolio earns a countercyclical risk premium. We explain these findings in a general equilibrium asset‐pricing model with endogenous production.
© 2009 by The University of Chicago.
Gomes, J. F., Kogan, L., & Yogo, M. (2009). Durability of Output and Expected Stock Returns. Journal of Political Economy, 117 (5), 941-986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/648882
Date Posted: 27 November 2017
This document has been peer reviewed.